Predictive Governance

With the intensification of datafication/digitization of governance comes a growing relevance of predictive governance instruments. Such instruments operate through ongoing, fine-grained data analysis in order to anticipate future scenarios and to support proactive governmental decision-making.

At the professorship, we research predictive governance mainly in the context of the following projects and activities:

1. Research Project „The productive effects of predictive governance in education: Early Warning Indicator Systems (EWIS) in den US“

The project is embedded in the Heisenberg funding scheme of the professorship and focuses on early warning systems used in a growing number of US schools in order to identify students who are at risk for low performance, problematic behavior or drop-out. In the context of the project, we particularly research the following questions:

  1. How do early warning systems transform the temporality, that is, the temporal framing and rhythms of schooling? Which effects do these transformations evoke?
  2. How do teachers and school leaders embed early warning systems within their (professional) practices; how do they relate the early warning data to their own (professional) judgement?
  3. In how far does the “flagging” of students (of being at risk) affect the talking about/interacting with these students? How do the systems change the social relations of schools? How does it affect social inequality?

The project includes collaboration with Dr. Steven Lewis from Australian Catholic University as well as Prof. Mathias Decuypere from KU Leuven.

2. “Politics of the Future in 21st-Century Societies. Strategic Foresight in Government Agencies of the Federal Republic of Germany” (Habilitation project of Dr. Manuel Reinhard)

What role does “government foresight” (i.e., strategic foresight by government authorities such as scenario planning) play in the establishment of “politics of the future” – the co-constitution of attempts to imagine (“imaginary futures”), control (“anticipatory governance”), and shape (“future-making practices”) possible futures – in specific fields of political practice in different policy sectors of the Federal Republic of Germany? Dr. Manuel Reinhard’s habilitation project consists of three ethnographic field studies in specialised foresight units within federal authorities for financial, climate, and defence policy (Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht [Federal Financial Supervisory Authority], Umweltbundesamt [Federal Environment Agency], Planungsamt der Bundeswehr [Bundeswehr Office for Defence Planning]).

3. Workshop Series PreGov

Since September 2020, we organized annual workshops on Predictive Governance at HSU Hamburg. The workshops brought together researchers from Europe and beyond, as well as from different disciplinary backgrounds, to discuss ongoing projects and ideas.

For more information on the workshop series see here.

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Program PreGov Workshop 2022

Letzte Änderung: 26. April 2024