HSU Empirical Research in Economics Seminar
Twice a month, the HERE Seminar invites researchers across different economic fields to present their latest empirical work.
Place: Helmut Schmidt University, Holstenhofweg 85, Room H1 1503.
Time: 5:00 p.m.
Mailing List: If you wish to sign up for our mailing list please notify Mr. Haustein (Erik.Haustein@hsu-hh.de) referring to “HERE Seminar”.
Organizers: Prof. Dr. Berlemann & Prof. Dr. Fuchs
The program at a glance
11.04.2019 Jun.-Prof. Dr. Robert Czudaj (TU Chemnitz)
„Fundamental Determinants of Exchange Rate Expectations“
This paper provides a new perspective on the exchange rate disconnect puzzle by analyzing the role of expected fundamentals for expected exchange rate changes. We assess data for 31 economies from 2002 until 2017 and consider expectations regarding GDP growth, inflation, interest rates and current accounts. Our empirical findings identify an impact of expected fundamentals, which is not fully consistent with traditional fundamentals models. Our results also show that the expectation making process differs remarkably between industrial and emerging economies and that exchange rate expectations are stronger linked to expected fundamentals after the global financial crisis. Finally, we find that expectations related to fundamentals affect both realized forecast errors and dispersion across forecasters.
23.05.2019 Prof. Dr. rer. pol. Stefan Voigt (Universität Hamburg)
„Militant Constitutionalism – A Promising Concept to Make Constitutional Backsliding less likely?“
06.06.2019 Dr. Julian Hinz (IFW Kiel)
„To Russia With Love? The Impact of Sanctions on Elections”
Do economic sanctions succeed in weakening the support of incumbent governments? To answer this question, we focus on the sanctions imposed on Russia after 2014 and identify their effect on voting behavior in both presidential and parliamentary elections. On the economic side, the sanctions significantly hurt Russia’s foreign trade, but with regional-level variation. For identification, we derive counterfactual regional-level trade flows from a full-general-equilibrium gravity model. Observed deviations from the counterfactual result from pre-determined variation in the regions‘ industry structure as well as their propensity to substituting trade with sanctioning countries by trade with other countries. DiD-Estimations reveal that regime support significantly increased in response to the sanctions, at the expense of voting support of communist and nationalist parties. Indeed, 39 percent of the increase in the vote shares of president Putin and his party can be explained by the sanctions‘ trade effects. Placebo estimations confirm the validity of our identification assumptions.
20.06.2019 Prof. Dr. Katrin Rehdanz (Universität Kiel)
Letzte Änderung: 20. Mai 2019