{"id":287,"date":"2017-11-14T12:59:16","date_gmt":"2017-11-14T11:59:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hsu-hh.de\/empwifo\/?page_id=287"},"modified":"2022-09-27T16:29:21","modified_gmt":"2022-09-27T14:29:21","slug":"prof-dr-michael-berlemann","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.hsu-hh.de\/empwifo\/prof-dr-michael-berlemann","title":{"rendered":"Prof. Dr. Michael Berlemann"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kontakt<\/h3><\/p>\n

Ich bin in Raum 2174 im zweiten Stock des HSU<\/abbr>-Hauptgeb\u00e4udes H1 zu finden. Damit Sie mich auch antreffen und ich auch nicht anderweitig gebunden bin, ist eine vorherige Terminvereinbarung per e-mail optimal. Gerne k\u00f6nnen Sie mich auch telefonisch kontaktieren.<\/p>\n

E-mail:<\/strong> Michael.Berlemann(at)hsu-hh.de<\/a>
Telefon:<\/strong> 0049-40-65412860<\/p>\n

Private Homepage: <\/strong>Michael-Berlemann.de<\/a><\/p>\n


Forschungsprofil<\/h3><\/p>\n

Meine Forschungsinteressen sind breit gef\u00e4chert und umfassen viele recht unterschiedliche Teilgebiete der Volkswirtschaftslehre (Migration, Politische \u00d6konomik, Konjunktur & Wachstum, Geo-\u00d6konomik, Monet\u00e4re \u00d6konomik & Finanzm\u00e4rkte, Mittelstandsforschung, Gesundheits\u00f6konomik). In den letzten Jahren habe ich mich au\u00dferdem intensiv mit der Erforschung der \u00f6konomischen Konsequenzen des Klimawandels besch\u00e4ftigt. Dabei interessiert mich vor allem, wie sich Klimawandel und klimabedingte Extremwetterereignisse auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung und die Lebenszufriedenheit der betroffenen L\u00e4nder und Regionen auswirkt und \u00fcber welche Kan\u00e4le diese Effekte wirken. Zudem erforsche ich, welche Migrationswirkungen von Klimawandel und Naturkatastrophen ausgehen, welche Sektoren besonders betroffen sind und wie sich Klimawandel auf die Pr\u00e4ferenzen der B\u00fcrger und ihr Wahlverhalten auswirkt.<\/p>\n

In meinen Forschungsprojekten arbeite ich vorrangig mit empirischen Methoden aus der Mikro- und der Makro\u00f6konometrie mit Querschnitts-, Zeitreihen- und Paneldatens\u00e4tzen. Dabei arbeite ich besonders mit kleinr\u00e4umigen, oft geo-referenzierten Daten. Erg\u00e4nzend kommen auch die Methoden der experimentellen Wirtschaftsforschung zur Anwendung. Typischerweise werden die empirischen und experimentellen Analysen aus formaler \u00f6konomischer Theorie aufgebaut.<\/p>\n

Ich freue mich jederzeit \u00fcber neue Kontakte zu Forschern, die auf \u00e4hnlichen Gebieten forschen.

CV<\/h3><\/p>\n

Ich wurde am 19. Juli 1968 in D\u00fcsseldorf geboren, bin verheiratet und habe zwei Kinder. Nach einigen Zwischenstationen hat mich mein Weg in die sch\u00f6nste Stadt Deutschands gef\u00fchrt. Nur mein Fu\u00dfballherz ist im Ruhrgebiet geblieben und tief k\u00f6nigsblau.<\/p>\n

Nach meinem Abitur am Theodor-Heuss-Gymnasium in Essen-Kettwig absolvierte ich zun\u00e4chst meinen 15-monatigen Grundwehrdienst in L\u00fcbeck. Im Anschluss studierte ich\u00a0Wirtschaftswissenschaften\u00a0an der Ruhr-Universit\u00e4t Bochum. Nach einer kurzen Mitarbeit am Seminar f\u00fcr Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik der Ruhr-Universit\u00e4t Bochum (Prof.<\/abbr> Dr.<\/abbr> Hans Besters) erhielt ich ein Promotionsstipendium des Freistaats Sachsen und wechselte an die Technische Universit\u00e4t Dresden. Dort wurde ich wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter am Lehrstuhl f\u00fcr Volkswirtschaftlehre, insbes. Geld, Kredit und W\u00e4hrung (Prof.<\/abbr> Dr.<\/abbr> Alexander Karmann). Im Jahr 1999 schloss ich meine Promotion zum Dr.<\/abbr> rer.<\/abbr> pol.<\/abbr> mit einer Arbeit zu polit\u00f6konomischen Theorien der Inflation und der Konjunktur mit der Note summa cum laude ab.<\/p>\n

Im Anschluss begann ich die Arbeit an einer Habilitationsschrift. Anfang 2004 wechselte ich als Managing Director zur Dresdner Niederlassung des ifo Instituts f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung und schloss meine Habilitation an der Fakult\u00e4t Wirtschaftswissenschaften der Technischen Universit\u00e4t Dresden mit einer Arbeit \u00fcber Methoden der Inflationsprognose ab. Zum Oktober 2006 nahm ich eine Lehrstuhlvertretung an der Helmut-Schmidt-Universit\u00e4t Hamburg an, seit Juli 2007 bin ich dort Professor f\u00fcr Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbes. politische \u00d6konomik und empirische Wirtschaftsforschung. Seit 2010 bin ich zudem Forschungsprofessor am ifo Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung. Seit M\u00e4rz 2022 bin ich zudem wissenschaftlicher Direktor des Hamburgischen WeltWirtschaftsInstituts (HWWI)<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Ich bin Mitglied des Vereins f\u00fcr Socialpolitik und des Ausschusses f\u00fcr Wirtschaftssysteme und Institutionen\u00f6konomik, des CESifo Research Networks, des Monetary Research Centers, der European Economic Association, der American Economic Association und der Royal Econometric Society. Seit 2013 bin ich zudem federf\u00fchrender Herausgeber der Fachzeitschrift Review of Economics.<\/p>\n


Aktuelle Diskussionspapiere<\/h3><\/p>\n

Do Floods Scare Off Residents?<\/h3>\n

Abstract: We use the 2002 flood disaster in the German state of Saxony as a natural experiment to study whether the population avoided disaster-prone areas after the flood. Such voting-by-feet location choices would enhance the resilience of municipalities in the future. Our difference-in-differences analysis with data from 419 municipalities over more than 10 years, however, shows that the communities affected by the flood\u00a0 had a better migration development than non-affected communities. The differential effect was also economically significant; the net migration rate was higher by about 2.5 people per 1000 inhabitants per year in affected municipalities.<\/p>\n

Working Paper: Berlemann, M., Methorst, J., Thum, M. (2022), Do Floods Scare Off Residents? Working Paper, Helmut-Schmidt-University Hamburg (Status: R & R Economics Letters<\/strong>).<\/p>\n

\n

From Stocks to Flows – Evidence for the Climate-Migration-Nexus<\/h3>\n

Abstract: Slow onset climate change has the potential to cause significant migration flows. Scientists have recently made considerable efforts to quantify these flows based on empirical methods. However, the literature on international migration has failed to come to a clear conclusion as many studies found no significant effects of climate, while others did. In this paper, we aim to uncover a factor which likely contributes to the mixed picture in the literature: how migration flow data is obtained from migrant stock data. Using the influential study of Cattaneo and Peri (2016) as a workhorse, we demonstrate that the derived empirical results depend heavily on the applied method to derive migration flows. Therefore, our study reveals the necessity for future research on international migration to test the sensitivity of estimated effects to changes in the construction of migration flows.<\/p>\n

Working Paper: Berlemann, M., Haustein, E., Steinhardt, M. (2021), From Stocks to Flows – Evidence for the Climate-Migration-Nexus, IZA Discussion Paper No. 14450, IZA Institute if Labor Economics.<\/p>\n

\n

Right and yet wrong:\u00a0 A spatio-temporal evaluation of Germany’s COVID-19 containment policy<\/h3>\n

Abstract: In order to get the COVID-19 pandemic under control, most governments around the globe have adopted some sort of containment policies. In the light of the enormous costs of these policies, in many countries highly controversial discussions on the adequacy of the chosen policies evolved. We contribute to this discussion by evaluating three waves of containment measures adopted by the German government. Based on a spatio-temporal endemic-epidemic model we show that in retrospective, only the first wave of containment measures clearly contributed to flattening the curve of new infections. However, a real-time analysis using the same empirical model reveals that based on the then available information, the adoption of additional containment measures was warranted. Moreover our spatio-temporal analysis shows that a one-size-fits-all policy, as it was adopted in Germany on the early stages of the epidemic, is not optimal.<\/p>\n

Working Paper: Berlemann, M., Haustein, E. (2020), Right and yet wrong:\u00a0 A spatio-temporal evaluation of Germany’s COVID-19 containment policy, CESifo Working Paper No. 8446, CESifo Munich (Status: under review).<\/p>\n

\n

Intertemporal Optimization Under Disaster Risk. Some Experimental Evidence<\/h3>\n

Abstract: In this paper we study whether individuals are capable of solving intertemporal optimization problems under disaster risk and how they react to changes in different sorts and levels of risk. In order to do so we run various variants of an internet-experiment with sampled participants, designed as a simplified two-period version of the Lucas-Uzawa model of economic growth. We find that individuals generally fail to play the optimal intertemporal strategy both with and without risk. However, individuals tend to react predictably to changes in risk levels only when risk becomes extreme.<\/p>\n

Working Paper: Berlemann, M., Michailova, J. (2020), Intertemporal Optimization Under Disaster Risk. Some Experimental Evidence, Working Paper, Helmut-Schmidt-University Hamburg (Status: under review).<\/p>\n

\n

Precipitation and Economic Growth<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Abstract: In this paper we study the growth effects of precipitation in the short-, medium and the long-run, thereby distinguishing between country groups on differing levels of development. We use several different precipitation indicators and study linear as well as non-linear precipitation effects and employ three different rainfall datasets. We find significantly negative and long-lasting growth effects of dry periods especially for comparatively poor countries whereas overly wet periods mainly remain without effect,<\/p>\n

Working Paper: Berlemann, M., Wenzel, D. (2018), Precipitation and Economic Growth, CESifo Working Paper No. 7258, CESifo Munich (Status: R&R Journal of Environmental Economics & Management<\/strong>).<\/p>\n

\n

Institutional Reform and Depositors\u2019 Portfolio Choice. Evidence from Bank Account Data<\/h3>\n

Abstract:\u00a0In this paper we employ the natural experiment of German Division and Reunification in order to study the effect of institutional reform on risky portfolio choice. We present empirical evidence indicating that 16 years after German Reunification portfolios of East and West German bank customers differed systematically. While these differences are especially pronounced for
bank customers with experiences in the former communist system, even the younger generation of East Germans still differs remarkably from their West German counterparts in terms of risky asset choice. Thus, informal institutions tend to have long-lasting effects on portfolio behavior.<\/p>\n

Working Paper: Berlemann, M., Luik, M.-A. (2017), Institutional Reform and Depositors\u2019 Portfolio Choice. Evidence from Bank Account Data, Working Paper, Helmut-Schmidt-University Hamburg (Status: under review).<\/p>\n

\n

Do Natural Disasters Stimulate Individual Saving? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in a Highly Developed Country<\/h3>\n

Abstract:\u00a0While various empirical studies have found negative growth-effects of natural disasters, little is yet known about the microeconomic channels through which disasters might affect short- and especially long-term growth. This paper contributes to filling this gap in the literature by studying how natural disasters affect individual saving decisions. This study makes use of a natural experiment created by the European Flood of August 2002. Using micro data from the German Socio-Economic Panel that we combine with geographic flood data, we compare the savings behavior of affected and non-affected individuals by using a difference-in-differences approach. Our empirical results indicate that natural disasters depress individual saving decisions, which might be the consequence of a Samaritan`s Dilemma.<\/p>\n

Working Paper: Michael Berlemann, Max Steinhardt & Jascha Tutt (2015), Do Natural Disasters Stimulate Individual Saving? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in a Highly Developed Country, IZA Discussion Paper No. 9026, IZA Bonn (Status: under review).<\/p>\n

\n

Institutions, Experiences and Inflation Aversion. Empirical Evidence from a Natural Experiment<\/h3>\n

Abstract:\u00a0Based on data from the Eurobarometer Survey we study the individual determinants of inflation aversion in Germany. Although West Germans are well-known as highly inflation
averse, we find even larger levels of inflation aversion among East Germans. Two possible explanations of this finding are discussed: (i) differences in inflation experiences and (ii) institutional discrepancies throughout the period of German division. We argue that most likely the observed inflation aversion patterns are the consequence of only slowly changing informal institutions in East Germany.<\/p>\n

Working Paper: Berlemann, M., Enkelmann, S. (2014), Institutions, Experiences and Inflation Aversion. Empirical Evidence from a Natural Experiment, Department of Economics Working Paper No. 143, Helmut-Schmidt-University Hamburg (Status: under review).<\/p>\n


Publikationen<\/h3><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Die wissenschaftlichen Publikationen von Herrn Berlemann finden Sie auf seiner privaten Homepage unter: Michael-Berlemann.de<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n


Drittmittelprojekte<\/h3><\/p>\n

Ausgew\u00e4hlte Drittmittelprojekte:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • Implikationen des Klimawandels und klimainduzierter Naturkatastrophen f\u00fcr Individuen, Firmen und den Versicherungssektor<\/strong>, finanziert durch: Bundesministerium f\u00fcr Bildung und Forschung (BMBF<\/abbr>), Laufzeit: November 2018 bis Dezember 2021.<\/li>\n
  • Climate Change, Natural Disasters and Economic Growth<\/strong>,\u00a0finanziert durch: Bundesministerium f\u00fcr Bildung und Forschung (BMBF<\/abbr>), Laufzeit: November 2011 bis November 2015.<\/li>\n
  • Haushaltsfinanzen, Verschuldungsverhalten und Kundenentwicklung<\/strong>,\u00a0finanziert durch: Sparkasse Hamburg, Laufzeit: Januar 2010 bis Dezember 2015.<\/li>\n
  • Strukturdatenprognose f\u00fcr Bundesverkehrswegeplan<\/strong>, finanziert durch: Bundesministerium f\u00fcr Verkehr, Bau und St\u00e4dtebau (BMVBS), in Kooperation mit dem ifo Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung, Laufzeit: Mai 2011 \u2013 Juni 2012.<\/li>\n
  • Evaluierung von Psychopharmaka<\/strong>, finanziert durch: LUNDBECK Pharma, Hamburg, Laufzeit: Januar 2010-Dezember 2012.<\/li>\n
  • Entwicklung eines Prognosemodells f\u00fcr den Bankertrag<\/strong>, finanziert durch: Sparkasse Hamburg, Laufzeit: Januar 2001 \u2013 Dezember 2010.<\/li>\n
  • Durchf\u00fchrung von Experimentellen Prognosem\u00e4rkten<\/strong>, finanziert durch: Potsdam Institut f\u00fcr Klimafolgenabsch\u00e4tzung, Laufzeit: Januar 2007\u2013 Dezember 2009.<\/li>\n
  • Demographie und Bankenprofitabilit\u00e4t<\/strong>, finanziert durch: Sachsen LB, Leipzig, Laufzeit: Januar 2006 \u2013 Dezember 2006.<\/li>\n
  • Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in den neuen Bundesl\u00e4ndern im internationalen Standortvergleich<\/strong>, finanziert durch: Bundesministerium f\u00fcr Verkehr, Bau und St\u00e4dtebau (BMVBS), Laufzeit: Dezember 2005 \u2013 Dezember 2006.<\/li>\n
  • Mittelstandsbericht f\u00fcr den Freistaat Sachsen mit dem Schwerpunkt Unternehmensnachfolge<\/strong>, finanziert durch: S\u00e4chsisches Staatsministerium f\u00fcr Wirtschaft und Arbeit (SMWA), Laufzeit: Januar 2005 \u2013 April 2006.<\/li>\n
  • Einfluss der Flutkatastrophe von August 2002 auf das s\u00e4chsische Bruttoinlandsprodukt,<\/strong> finanziert durch: S\u00e4chsische Staatskanzlei, Laufzeit: M\u00e4rz-Juni 2005.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n


    <\/p>\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Kontakt Ich bin in Raum 2174 im zweiten Stock des HSU-Hauptgeb\u00e4udes H1 zu finden. Damit Sie mich auch antreffen und ich auch nicht anderweitig gebunden bin, ist eine vorherige Terminvereinbarung […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":156,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-287","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","category-forschung"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hsu-hh.de\/empwifo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/287","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hsu-hh.de\/empwifo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hsu-hh.de\/empwifo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hsu-hh.de\/empwifo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/156"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hsu-hh.de\/empwifo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=287"}],"version-history":[{"count":86,"href":"https:\/\/www.hsu-hh.de\/empwifo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/287\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1663,"href":"https:\/\/www.hsu-hh.de\/empwifo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/287\/revisions\/1663"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hsu-hh.de\/empwifo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=287"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hsu-hh.de\/empwifo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=287"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hsu-hh.de\/empwifo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=287"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}